25 January 2011
The "Casual" Oscars
The Kids Are All Right
It could go almost any way here... This is the best bet for Black Swan, though The Kids Are All Right could also take it.
Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
Danny Boyle, 127 Hours
Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right
Debra Granik, Winter's Bone
John Cameron Mitchell, Rabbit Hole
Another tough call. This is why I love the Spirit Awards! I would love to see Aronofsky take it here.
BEST FIRST FEATURE:
Everything Strange and New
The Last Exorcism
Night Catches Us
More great nominees. I like Get Low for this, but I also think it could be Tiny Furniture. That movie got a lot of really good press and is very much in keeping with the vein of the awards- low budget, no names, character driven. Wouldn't it be hilarious if The Last Exorcism won?
JOHN CASSAVETES AWARD:
Lovers of Hate
I like The Exploding Girl or Daddy Longlegs. The Cassavetes Award goes to a film with a budget of less than $500,000. This award is always exciting as it represents the true face of Independent cinema.
BEST FIRST SCREENPLAY:
Obselidia, Diane Bell
Tiny Furniture, Lena Dunham
Lovely, Still, Nik Fackler
Jack Goes Boating, Robert Glaudini
Monogamy, Dana Adam Shapiro, Evan M. Wiener
I haven't seen all of these, but I like the idea behind Tiny Furniture best.
BEST FEMALE LEAD:
Annette Bening, The Kids are All Right
Greta Gerwig, Greenberg
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawerence, Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman, Blac Swan
Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine
With 6 nominees in this category, it is going to be a close call. Portman could sweep every award show, but this is the format for Williams or Lawerence to upset. I love that Greta Gerwig was nominated, she is amazing in that movie; I just hated that movie.
BEST MALE LEAD:
Ronald Bronstein, Daddy Longlegs
Aaron Eckhart, Rabbit Hole
James Franco, 127 Hours
John C. Reilly, Cyrus
Ben Stiller, Greenberg
Here is where Franco could win something but he's up against strong indie favorites Eckhart and Reilly. Stiller could steal it in his un-characteristic turn as a malcontent asshole.
BEST SUPPORTING FEMALE:
Ashley Bell, The Last Exorcism
Dale Dickey, Winter's Bone
Allison Janney, Life During Wartime
Daphne Rubin-Vega, Jack Goes Boating
Naomi Watts, Mother and Child
Only the Globes have love for Mila Kunis. It's just as well, she wouldn't stand a chance here either. Ashley Bell is brilliant in Exorcism, simply the best thing about that movie. I would love to see some love for Dickey. She seems to have been in everything and is a talented character actor. Watts will probably get it though.
BEST SUPPORTING MALE:
Bill Murray, Get Low
John Hawkes, Winter's Bone
Samuel L. Jackson, Mother and Child
John Ortiz, Jack Goes Boating
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
BEST FOREIGN FILM:
The King's Speech
Uncle Boonmee Who Can Recall His Past Lives
The King's Speech may lose out due to its heavy Oscar nominations.
Exit Through the Gift Shop
Here's where Exit Through the Gift Shop could walk away with it. Finger's crossed!